The Road Ahead

There are plenty of reviews of the year that was, online, in print, on TV, it is a yearly tradition for our media and entertainment outlets to look back on the highlights of the year, so this will not be another one of those. As much as I love history, I really am more fascinated with the precious present, and with trying to figure out what might occur in the future. It is the reason that I enjoy reading and learning about history as much as I do, because it gives me a perspective on where we are today and where we might be headed.

Where we are today is a mixed bag, but one thing is for certain, which is that there is more hope for the future than at any time that I can remember. 2008 may very well be remembered as the year when America got its groove back, by electing an intelligent and worldly leader as our next president, by finally waking up to the realities of what is happening to our planet, by starting to accept that our place in the new era of world history will be different from our place in the old era, and that our role will have to change to adapt to that.

Adapting to change through innovation is something that defines America, as does an optimism that often borders on cockiness, and these elements have been around since the first Europeans set out to colonize a foreign land an ocean away from their homelands, fighting overwhelming odds posed by nature, distance, and an indigenous population that wasn’t necessarily too fond of newcomers taking over and setting up shop. It was evident in our decision to take on the most powerful armed force of the era when we decided that we’d had enough of British rule. What the mighty Brits referred to as a bunch of farmers with pitchforks not only won the war and booted the Brits out of the lower portion of the continent (they would remain in Canada until the 19th century) but then proceeded to set up a democratic republic that the world had never seen and one which most doubted would last.

In the next century, we decided that it was our destiny to control the rest of the lower half of North America, or at least stretching down to the Rio Grande, and set about doing so with the same ability to adapt to change and boundless optimism that had allowed us to found the original 13 colonies and then to win our independence. In doing so we certainly stepped on a few toes to put it mildly, but I for one am not sorry that it happened, though I might wish the means had been somewhat different. I would not be living in the good old U.S. of A today if not for the westward expansion of the 19th century, nor would our nation be the world’s largest and most powerful economy, military, and cultural power, which with some exceptions, we have mostly used for the betterment of the world as a whole.

In the twentieth century we became a major player on the world stage, spurred first by Teddy Roosevelt at the turn of the century, followed by Woodrow Wilson, our first sitting president to visit Europe in the aftermath of The Great War (WWI), and then by FDR and our emergence as a true global superpower at the end of the Second World War. Over the preceding fifty years we built a force to be reckoned with, and while we have had some rough patches recently due to eight years of rule by the worst president of our lifetimes, we seem to be back on the track to better times and better results, we seem to be getting our groove back.

I don’t expect that Obama will magically solve all of our nation’s ills, nor do I blame all of those same ills on the Bush administration. Our economic situation has been a few decades in the making and encompasses decisions made by presidents of both parties, not to mention a mindset of avarice on the part of our society that has produced unsustainable inequalities in the system.

There are no quick fixes to the economic recession, which is truly global in scope and figures to be longer lasting than previous downturns of our lifetime. But we can manage to come out of the recession with a leaner and less meaner system if we utilize the innovation, adaptability, and optimism that has always served us well. When gas prices shot up to over four dollars per gallon last summer, we simply adjusted our driving habits and used less. This shows adaptability, as does the decreased consumer spending that we have seen over the most recent holiday season.

We are capable of being innovative in a number of areas, most especially as it pertains to the natural environment. We finally have a president in office who gets it, who seems to understand that we must change our energy consumption habits and develop a new system of energy production if we are to save our planet from destruction, not to mention give us economic competitiveness and protect our national security in this new era of shifting powers and allegiances. Again, we will not solve serious environmental concerns overnight, but with dedication and passion and good old fashioned American know how and ingenuity, we can and I believe will become a world leader in what are termed green technologies and in creating a more sustainable and productive system of powering our world and allowing for beneficial growth to occur.

With regard to our foreign policy, we must adjust our thinking from one of being the sole superpower and world hegemon to a major power that can be a leader, but in a collaborative manner that takes into account the needs and wishes of our allies while standing up to our enemies and bad actors of the world stage. We must dictate less and cooperate more, no longer the lone wolf but more of the first among equals in this new era. Again, we elected the right guy for the job, a person who has real world experience with the world outside of our borders, having grown up partly in Hawaii and Indonesia, he can give the perspective of an outsider because he has been one, and we certainly need some of that perspective in our foreign affairs.

We are entering a new year on the calendar, but more than that we are about to enter into a new era of human and world history. No one knows exactly what the future will hold in store, and it will be years if not decades until history can even begin to accurately judge the end of the era that we have just passed through, and even longer until we can truly assess the era that we are just entering. What we do matters, who we elect to hold office matters, how we treat each other and the planet we all share matters, our opinions and level of knowledge and understanding and how we utilize them matters.

It is a great time to be alive, and while we face many challenges and obstacles to overcome, the opportunity to deal with those challenges and overcome the obstacles is something that perhaps, if we tackle life with that same innovative, adaptative, and optimistic spirit, we can look back decades from now and say that we were part of something that left the world a better place than when we found it, a place where our kids and grandkids can live and thrive, a place that we can all be proud to call home.

Confessions of a non-Workaholic

There is certainly nothing wrong with good old-fashioned honest hard work. Hard work is good for the soul, good for the economy, and doesn’t generally hurt the old bank account balance either, depending of course on the specific type of work, some work certainly pays much better than other types of work.

Many people define themselves by their work. It is one of the primary conversation starters, especially among guys, when they meet somebody new. “So what do you do for a living Jim?” “Well, Steve, I’m the semi-regional assistant district manager in charge of marketing and distribution for the west coast and inter-mountain region for product development and testing.” And by the time Jim figures out what the hell that all means, his double tall extra whip no foam triple shot mocha chai latte is ready and it’s time to move along. (Ok, so I’ve used a variation of that joke before, but at least I’m ripping off from my own lines, and I spend a lot of time at Starbucks, drinking good old-fashioned coffee mind you)

A lot of guys, and increasingly women as well, take an almost masochistic pride in the small amount of vacation time they take. You hear guys at the gym brag about how they haven’t had a vacation since the Clinton administration, often the same guys who look like they haven’t had a salad in about the same amount of time which makes you wonder what the heck they are actually accomplishing by showing up at the gym. These are often the same guys who talk about their kids and ex wife who live in another state, but hey, you should check out the new Hummer or Corvette or Harley they’ve got outside in the parking lot.

Vacations are for suckers. Apparently so are in-tact families and vehicles that don’t say, “hey look at me, I’m a total jackass with a beer gut, more hair on my back than on top of my head, but I can still get chicks because I’ve got a sweet ride.” That doesn’t fit on a conventional bumper sticker so you’ll have to trust me that this is what the cars are saying. My wife by the way is the one that pointed out to me, which has since been confirmed countless times, that whenever you see a guy in a convertible, it’s always an old guy who tends to be follically challenged. Which I suppose is actually an advantage if you’re bumping around in a convertible.

Now don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of good family guys, who still have their wife and kids under one roof, who find the time to attend and even participate in their kids activities, and who for the most part bring home a heck of a lot more bacon than I likely ever will, who are nonetheless workaholics. And I also don’t want to disparage work, as I said, there is nothing wrong with hard work, I do it myself whenever it’s required of me. I also realize that some people take pleasure in their work and the long endless hours spent at the office are a choice they make. Some people work their backsides off because they need to provide for their families, or because a certain lifestyle is important to them, or because they are just very driven strivers who want to get to that next rung on the ladder and will do whatever it takes to get there. For those people I say, if it feels good then do it, far be it from me to try to tell a grown man or woman how to live their lives. All I can say is that for me, being a non-workaholic is where it’s at.

Don’t confuse that with being a slacker, because it is certainly not the same thing. A slacker is someone who does nothing productive with their life, one who takes up space, sucks up oxygen, and leaves nothing more than a carbon footprint behind. By the way, has anyone ever actually seen a carbon footprint? Do they look like regular footprints, but maybe like a blackish charcoal gray color? When someone walks with Jesus, is there only one carbon footprint left behind? I’ll have to write a letter to Al Gore and see if he knows. But I digress.

I am an unabashed non-workaholic. I show up to work at 7:30 as my contract requires, and I leave at 3:30 without fail. I work hard while I’m there, as a teacher my students deserve no less than the best I have to offer them during the time that we spend together every day, and I take a great deal of pride in giving my students a quality and hopefully enlightening experience each day that they show up to my class. But I draw the line at working nights and weekends. Whatever work doesn’t get done within the confines of the work day can wait until the next work day. Funny thing about work is that it doesn’t go anywhere, and I’ve also discovered that the earth keeps spinning when it doesn’t get done right away.

So what do I do with my time in between 3:30 and the next 7:30? The stuff I enjoy, and I stay plenty productive, which is why I distinguish between being a non-workaholic and a slacker. I spend my afternoons often at my son’s ballgames or taking my daughter to rehearsals. On the days when there isn’t an activity to rush off to, I drink green tea and watch Hardball with my wife when she gets home from work, and have conversation about anything and everything. I go for my late afternoon run, then I come home, pour myself a glass of merlot or a mug of cold Guinness, make dinner and hang out and watch TV with my family. More conversation, maybe a little helping my daughter with her homework, usually I end the day by watching my favorite sports program PTI with my son before heading to bed.

Sleep is good, but no more than 6-7 hours is needed if it’s quality sleep. Not stressing out about work helps a great deal in that regard, as does the nightly alcoholic intake. I get up early in the morning, make a cup of green tea, grab a quick shower, dress and head out the door early enough to get downtown before the traffic sets in. Then I spend a good couple hours at Starbucks enjoying my morning coffee while reading the papers and magazines I enjoy online, I generally write some, and if there’s time left over take out whatever book I’m currently reading until it’s time to head for the salt mines. Almost forgot, I also take my hour lunch break during which time I continue wherever I left off in my book.

So there’s my routine in a nutshell, and while I may not ever win employee of the month or gain fame and riches, I can live with that. I may never have the big house up in the hills or the overpriced luxury sedan, but that’s alright because I covet neither. What I do have however is priceless and it something that I wouldn’t trade for all the money and recognition in the world, nor is it something that can be achieved by working late or coming in on Saturdays. What I have is the pleasure of being an active part of my kids growing up, the appreciation of having a loving family that communicates in authentic ways with each other, a wonderful affection for my life partner and soul mate, also known as my wife, and the knowledge that I am enjoying my life, doing what I take pleasure in doing, and as much as is possible, living it on my terms. Life is a series of trade-offs, and for this non-workaholic, there isn’t a thing that I would trade off, save perhaps more time in the day to do the things I enjoy doing. But as long as the 8 hour workday and the 5 day workweek remain in effect, I’ll gladly take the time that I’ve got and continue to do the most that I can with it.

The Economist-Rethinking Taxes

Ok, so I’m not really an economist, I merely play one on my little blog, but without coming off as arrogant as a real economist, I would put mine, and for that matter most people out there who work for a living and who collectively account for over two-thirds of our economy with our spending, I would put our opinions and observations on the shelf marked real world, while relegating the theories of the actual economists on the shelf marked silly stuff from the ivory tower. Not that I’m against expert analysis, if I want my finances planned I’ll go to a financial planner, if I want a home designed I’ll check with an architect, and if I want my car fixed I sure as heck am not getting under the hood and making things worse. But when it comes to economic theory and taking advice from the so-called experts, I will revert to the words of the father of modern capitalism, Adam Smith, who I believe coined the term caveat emptor, which as we all learned back in school means buyer beware.

I don’t need to go into a diatribe about how the elite economic class managed a series of stupendous moves concerning derivatives markets, hedge funds, and mortgage lending that largely precipitated our current global recession, that ship has already sailed and it’s about as obvious by now as saying that Bush hasn’t been our most competent president. So looking forward, let’s see if we can’t minimize the damage that these geniuses are ready to inflict on us, starting with an idea whose time hopefully never comes, a gas tax.

This idea has been proposed for awhile, Thomas Friedman, who happens to be one of my favorite writers, is a big proponent of this bad idea. I just this morning read an editorial in the New York Times regarding the idea, and it goes like this. We need to have motivation to invest in alternative energy sources, and Americans are too stupid and selfish and short-sighted to stop our addiction to oil unless our beloved federal government steps in and taxes the hell out of gas. The floor they say should be $4 a gallon, so if gas is down to $1.50 as it is now in Arizona, then we would still pay an extra $2.50 per gallon with the difference going to the government, so that they in their infinite wisdom and fiscal discipline can spend it on setting up alternative energy industries. Wow, sign me up for that plan!

This idea is so dumb as to be infuriating on so many levels. For starters, why should any of us trust our federal government to wisely spend our tax dollars anymore? I have completely turned around in my thinking on this issue by the way, spurred along by both rich and conservative friends, and after considering their points and talking to people, not to mention doing some interesting reading, my stance on taxes has taken a strong shift to the right.
This is the same federal government that has squandered $850 billion dollars on the recent financial bailout plan, which was billed as one thing and an emergency measure that was so important that John McCain, who admittedly knows nothing about the economy had to rush to DC and hold special meetings. We were promised, to be fair by my guy Obama as well, that there would be oversight. Yeah, like the alcoholic teenager in the family provides oversight of his parents liquor cabinet. The plan turned out to be something completely different from what we were sold on, turned out not to be such an emergency measure after all, and included no oversight thanks to a clause snuck in by the Bush-Paulson team and approved by our oh so vigilant Congress that only allowed for oversight under the conditions of the original plan, which was to buy toxic securities and save our financial institutions and hence our capitalist economy from ruin.

But here’s the beautiful part of the plan, we decided that we didn’t need to buy those securities after all, therefore oversight is not needed and companies can for example, pay their top haunchos whatever they want in terms of bonuses and the like. On top of that, the Congress had the chutzpah to add an additional $150 billion in pork barrel spending to this supposedly emergency measure. So we were sold a bill of goods and will not get the promised results but are still on the hook for the bill. Hmm, sounds eerily familiar, the financial version of the Iraq War, which likewise was a joint venture on the part of our executive and legislative branches of government.

But we are supposed to trust this same set of bandits to take the extra money from this gas tax to do the right thing with it? Excuse me if I seem a little cynical, but this is madness. And people like to belittle Ralph Nader, somehow blaming him for Gore losing the election in 2000? Ralph Nader talks about the incredible government corruption and waste and calls for a taxpayer revolt, and he’s the joke? The joke is on us because we keep electing different foxes to guard the hen house, it doesn’t matter if the fox has a red coat or a blue coat, he’s still a fox for crying out loud. But we marginalize candidates like Nader and libertarian Ron Paul even though they speak the most sense and the greatest truth on matters such as these.

Back to the gas tax, it is a horrible idea to give the government money and trust them to do the right thing. That’s as ridiculous to me as the woman who meets her mate while having an extramarital affair with him, then somehow thinks he won’t do the same to her one day. The leopard doesn’t change his spots, and our government is pathetically inefficient and wasteful in its spending, and why wouldn’t they be, it’s not their money and they get away with it time after time.

The gas tax is also a bad call from a personal budget standpoint. It may be easy for liberals in New York City who use mass transit, or think tank economists who take limos to work to blather on about how we should spend more on gas, but those of us in the real world put gas in our tanks because we need to drive to work and to the market and to the kids ballgames and rehearsals. Nobody I know goes out for a leisurely Sunday drive anymore for the heck of it. Most of us commute to work out of necessity, and public transit is either too expensive, too inconvenient, or both. Granted, we can and should be more selective in our choice of vehicles in terms of balancing the needs for passenger space with fuel efficiency, but that should be our choice, not a mandate from the government.

The alternative energy industry will likely need some government stimulus to get off the ground in the form of initial investment that will allow burgeoning industries to achieve enough scale so that they can become self-sufficient and eventually profitable. There is a good book I read recently called “Freedom From Oil” which I would highly recommend and which addresses this important issue. But that should not be confused with the government running such industries. All of the best innovations and the most efficient practices come from the private sector and are guided by the free market. When the state runs industries it is historically inefficient and uncreative, and historically this has been the case.

Even communist China, which is an emerging economic power, is achieving this status by opening up their system and introducing a hybrid system of state control over politics but allowing private enterprise to run the economic sector. India is doing much the same, as they have changed their socialist policies of the 1970’s and 80’s, and as a result have seen tremendous growth and hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of abject poverty as a result in both nations. Yet here we are, the capitalist nation that learned from the British and taught the rest of the world, seemingly reverting to socialist forms with the government taking over in large part the financial and auto industries. Somewhere Adam Smith is rolling over in his grave and Ralph Nader is shouting down the powers that be, only no one is listening to either because, well, Smith is six feet under, and Nader cost Gore the 2000 election.

The gas tax idea is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to bad ideas on taxes. It would cripple our personal budgets and reduce consumer spending, it would give even more power to the government by further enriching their coffers, and it would likely have little positive impact on the development of alternative energy industries.

For that matter, taxing wealth on further reflection doesn’t seem to be such a good idea either, which is not to say that we shouldn’t have a progressive tax system. We should, and those who earn more and benefit more should pay a higher percentage, but it should not be punitive and the use of this money should be accounted for. Wealth for the sake of wealth is immoral, but much wealth is used to create more wealth for society, and that should be encouraged and not punished.

The gas tax however is even worse, because it is taking money out of the wallets of the people of the middle class who can least afford it and whose economic well-being is the driving factor in maintaining a healthy economy and social system. It is the equivalent of robbing Paul to pay Peter, and to my way of thinking Peter has been paid enough already with less than stellar results. It’s time for a new approach, something other than the failed policies of trickle down and tax everything in sight.

The Sports Nut-You Gotta Love Sports!

My wife and I have an unspoken deal when it comes to me watching sports on TV. I agree not to watch every single meaningless game that comes across the digital spectrum, and in return she agrees not to be one of those annoying wives that busts my chops about watching sports. Like most of our agreements, it has served us well for the last 18 plus years, and while it involves compromise on both of our parts, it is the type of natural compromise which are the only kind that really work in the long run. Which is to say that I don’t mind doing my part and I’m pretty sure she doesn’t either. As opposed to the compromise whereby the husband is forced to go to the mall and watch his wife shop for shoes or some other excruciating activity, and the wife is then forced to watch monster truck racing at the local arena with her husband. Both hate every minute of it and end up, usually sooner rather than later, hating the other for forcing them to do stuff they abhor doing.

So in our case, I enjoy watching the shows that we watch together in lieu of the Milwaukee-Indiana game on TNT. I very much enjoy Desperate Housewives and Brothers and Sisters, the latter is one of the more intelligent shows on network TV, even if all the characters are rich, beautiful, and witty. They can’t all be Six Feet Under or Dexter, especially considering that the broadcast networks have to appeal to a wide audience, but it is a very interesting and humane show nonetheless. I have been a big fan of ER since we started watching it the season it began, when our now 14 year-old son was a newborn. And I will even do a little bit of Oprah or some Home and Garden TV, although admittedly a little bit can go a long ways for me on those counts, but I do like the Oprah segments with Dr. Oz. However, I draw the line at Dr. Phil, that guy is just a blowhard jackass, enough said.

In return, my wife will indulge me with some sports viewing when it comes around to the big games, and to pretty much any pro football game, a Laker game, or the final round of a golf tournament with Tiger Woods in contention. Now granted, her participation usually consists of her settling into her comfy spot on the couch, cuddling up with her favorite blankets, asking me a few questions about what is going on, and then promptly falling asleep for a good afternoon nap. But at least she is there by my side, and even in a state of sleep that is better than not having her there. Of course even she has her limits too, her line is drawn at baseball, which I actually got her into for a brief time when she was pregnant with Jake, but like her trying fish, it turned out to be a brief exception, something in the hormones must have made her inclined toward baseball and fish, but it didn’t last. And she always has to use her standard line when I tell her there is only a couple minutes left in the game, the line about how the last two minutes take twenty minutes, and even though that’s generally true, it’s not always the case as I inevitably point out, because sometimes the team trailing is out of timeouts. So there!

The point of all this is to say that while I am a huge sports fan who follows closely the comings and goings in the wide world of sports, I don’t watch every game that’s on, I mostly keep up by watching Sportscenter and the best sports talk show in the history of the universe, Pardon the Interruption, PTI to those that are loyal viewers, of which there are many. I also don’t watch entire games much anymore, partly due to the fact that there are always shows on DVR to watch, and also because as I get older my adult ADD becomes more acute and I can’t sit still for three hours at a time to do much of anything. I have become pretty adept at catching the beginning of the game, and then the fourth quarter, or in the case of baseball games, the last few innings of close games. Yet there are always exceptions to the rule, and yesterday’s epic battle between my beloved Lakers and the dreaded Celtics was certainly one such exception.

Simply put, the Lakers-Celtics is the greatest rivalry in all of sports, one that spans three generations and encompasses passion that transverses the entire continent. The Yankees-Red Sox rivalry is a close second, and Michigan-Ohio State in college football would probably take the third spot, but those are both regional rivalries with a national interest, unlike the Boston-LA clash which is truly bicoastal, matching the east coast tough guys against the west coast pretty boys, strength versus finesse, blue-collar Beantown versus high flying Hollywood. Of course the differences are exaggerated, and when it comes down to it, the Lakers are capable of playing hard nosed physical defense just as the Celtics are capable of playing run and gun up tempo offense. Regardless, when these two teams clash, it matters in the sports world, and as the NBA in my opinion has surpassed baseball to become our nation’s second most popular sport after NFL football, this rivalry is at the top of the list.

Yesterday’s game was one not to be missed by the sports enthusiast or the casual fan alike. It involved not only all the technical elements that make basketball such a great game to watch when it is played properly, but the raw emotion both on the court and in the stands was palpable and real. The Lakers gained a small measure of revenge for their defeat at the hand of the Celtics in last June’s Finals by pulling away down the stretch, thanks in large part to the play of Pao Gasol, aka Spaniard, and the always stellar play of the planet’s best baller, Kobe. Like Magic, Bird, Dr. J, and MJ before him, or like Reggie or Tiger, the greats are known only by one name, like Brazilian footballers, and Kobe certainly merits such status, as does the planet’s second best player, Lebron.

The Christmas Day clash ranks in the top five sporting events of the year, along with the great Super Bowl back in February between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, with Eli Manning leading the greatest game winning drive in the history of football to knock off the unbeaten Patriots. The next memorable event of the sports calendar was in June, with the U.S. Open and Tiger Woods battling veteran journeyman Rocco Mediate mano a mano into a 5th round playoff and coming up with yet another great victory, made even more impressive by the revelations afterward of the extent of the injuries that Tiger was dealing with. Skipping over the painful NBA Finals series which saw the Celtics first make up an impossible deficit to beat the Lakers in the middle of the series and then saw them completely annihilate them in the final game to win the championship, the other memorable event of the year came on the Fourth of July and the Wimbledon Finals between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, an tennis match for the ages between two of the greatest rivals the sport has ever known. Then comes the best regular season clash to hit the NBA in quite some time yesterday, and at a time when pro basketball is as interesting as it has been since it’s heyday back in the 80’s, when the Lakers-Celtics rivalry was in it’s second incarnation, the first being back in the 60’s when the players were less athletic, the game less relevant, and the Celtics won all the time so the rivalry was pretty one-sided.

The 80’s rivalry brings back the best memories, from DJ’s gut wrenching game winning jumper, to the great speeches of Pat Riley which give me goose bumps just thinking about them now, to Kareem’s sky hook and Magic’s baby sky hook to beat Boston. Jack Nicholson courtside at the Fabulous Forum and the Boston Garden with no air conditioning and dead spots on the floor but as much character and charm as an arena can have when it houses your mortal enemy. The current rivalry has a ways to go, but it is well on it’s way to becoming a classic in the same vein, and if we’re lucky the two will meet up on the hardwood of the Staples Center and the faux parquet floor of whatever the Celtics call their arena now in June for another clash of the titans, hopefully with the good guys coming out on top this time around.

In a Seinfeld episode shortly after George had gotten together with his new girlfriend Susan, he is stuck sitting with Susan in their apartment watching a rerun of the TV show Mad About You while Jerry, the perpetual bachelor is at home watching that night’s Yankees game. While George has the look of agony on his face of a man waiting for his wife to try on yet another pair of shoes, Jerry has the smile of a man in all his glory, while in the background after a big Yankees homerun the announcer declares, “you gotta love sports!” Indeed you do.

The Economic Forecast

With the caveat that should come with all forecasts, that in the words of my father-in-law, the Colt 45, they're all just guessing. This is what the Colt, who drove a tank in Italy and France during The War and who is now in his late 80's, would say regarding the weathermen, or pretty much anyone who purported to be an expert on something or other. I have to say that over the years I have come around to his way of thinking, and all the advanced degrees from Ivy League schools and publications in journals no one reads, except those with advanced degrees from Ivy League schools, and my personal favorite, membership in a prominent think tank, can change the fact that they, we, are only guessing when we make predictions, whether they be about the weather, football games, elections, or the economy. With that said, here's the forecast from the Ordinary Average Guy Institution, a world renowned think tank representing the views of regular people everywhere.

First the obvious, or at least by now it should be obvious that we are in tough economic times. Call it what you will, recession seems to be the term of choice, downturn for those that want to be a bit more on the optimistic side, and depression is a term of last resort because it's well, so depressing. Many people, including your humble correspondent, saw this coming over a year ago, based on the fact that the housing market was starting to tank, credit for consumers was starting to tighten, the stock market was an obvious bubble about to burst as it was approaching 14K, and wages weren't likely to increase anytime soon. In short, most middle class Americans, which is a group that includes, at least psychologically if not mathematically, most people that have household incomes in between 50K and 500K, most of us were quite simply running out of money to spend.

No longer able to spend based on the paper wealth provided by our once soaring stock portfolios, or able to borrow against the ever increasing values of our homes, or able to choose from among dozens of credit card offers being delivered to our kitchen counters every week, we were bound to butt up against that place where all the stuff we didn't really need to be buying anyways meets up with i think it's just as well because we are broke and in debt. This is the intersection where recessions tend to begin, considering that American consumer spending accounts for 70% of our economy and as we have a negative savings rate as a nation.

But this is all old news now, and while I don't expect to ever be paid off on my bet, made last fall when the market was cruising, that it would drop to 12K by Super Bowl Sunday, a prediction that now looks very conservative as the market is now hovering in between 8-9K, I've been waiting for the majority of Americans to come to the realization that this is not just a minor bump in the road to riches. It seems that most have seen the light, which is good because in order to deal with a situation you must first acknowledge that it exists. So now comes the hard part, but before I look at what likely needs to be done I want to focus today on what the future may hold.

I see two plausible scenarios, the first of which I would put at about 50-60% chance of occurring. This scenario is a modest to severe recession, lasting throughout 2009 and likely well into 2010 before the corner is turned. In this scenario, we see continued trends such as unemployment, with the rate of joblessness probably reaching up around 10% nationwide, the Dow and other indicators dropping perhaps another 20-25% from where they now stand, which would put the Dow around 6K at the bottom, and very small GDP growth, if any growth at all. If the plans of the Fed now come to fruition, interest rates should stay low as inflation seems likely to remain benign, and this will give some help to the housing market, to business investment if the banks ever start lending again, and will give relief to consumers for basics such as gas and groceries.

We come out of this recession within the next couple years hopefully having learned some lessons about excess and the nature of markets and bubbles that might serve us well into the future, and we come out leaner and meaner and ready for the next wave of good times, just in time for Obama's reelection campaign, although probably not quickly enough to save the Democrats from keeping control of both houses of Congress in 2010, which may not be such a bad thing.

In the second scenario, which I would give a 30-40% chance of occurring, you take the above predictions and worsen them by a factor of about 50%, this would be a much more severe recession, even bordering on depression. Unemployment could hit 12-15%, GDP growth goes negative, the Dow drops under 5K, and even low interest rates aren't enough to save the housing market from going further in the tank and capital spending around the world from drying up severely.

I honestly don't foresee another Great Depression, although that is an obvious comparison and seems to be mentioned quite often, probably more for the shock value and the recognition factor than for anything else. We have a different economic system and many more safeguards in place now than we did 80 years ago. Also, in a true global system like the one we are in, nobody escapes the pain on the down side, but the flip side of that is that once recovery begins somewhere around the globe, those effects will also catch on and find their way to prop up ailing economies. This scenario would see us in tough times probably for 2-3 years before starting to rebound, perhaps sometime in late 2011 or early 2012, and would probably bring about many more fundamental changes in our economic system, both domestically and internationally.

The other two possible but unlikely scenarios, which I would give at less than a 10% chance of occurring, would be for a complete collapse on the one hand, something that would make the 1930's look good by comparison. This is the scenario that the survivalists are envisioning, where hordes of hungry people will roam the streets in search of food in some sort of post-apocalyptic world. Personally I think these people spend too much time on conspiracy theory web sites and watch too many Road Warrior movies, but you never know. The other plausible but unlikely scenario would see this recession turning out to be not such a big deal, and something that we emerge from by summer time and have forgotten about by this time next year. Again, this could happen, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

So there is the forecast, from the perspective of one who lacks the MBA or advanced degree in economic theory, but who has an honorary doctorate in life observations and an understanding of what the average ordinary man and woman goes through because I am one of them, as I imagine are most people reading this column. Next time I get around to the topic, I will offer my opinion on what, if anything can be done to alleviate the recession, and whether or not the stimulus package being offered by Obama is likely to help or hurt.

Pondering on Human Nature

Human nature is a fascinating concept. It is the belief that there are certain emotions, desires, and responses that are truly universal, which is to say they exist to varying degrees in all people regardless of whether they live on Manhattan’s upper west side in a million dollar apartment, or in conditions of squalor in a poor neighborhood of Bangalore, India. The love a mother has for her child may take different forms in different parts of the world for instance, but it is a universal concept if there ever was such a thing. Certainly there are always exceptions to the norm, horrendous examples of mothers doing unspeakable acts, or abandoning their children due to drug addiction and prostitution, but those events become noteworthy and remain in our consciousness for the simple fact that they are so extreme in their abnormality.

I often ponder why we act, and react in the ways that we do. How much is due to the environments we are intertwined with, both the short term, such as a certain context or scenario, and the longer term physical and cultural environment which we are exposed to over time. How much of our behavior is based on our own innate feelings and attitudes, again we have to distinguish between the short term, our given mood at any moment, which of course can also be based on environmental or situational factors thus further complicating the analysis, and our long term personalities and general dispositions. This is known as the nature versus nurture theory of human behavior, on one side our behavior is determined by our innate and internal qualities, on the other it is determined by the world we are a part of.

Of course there are very few, if any behaviors that are truly one or the other, there are always a myriad of factors that determine how we act in a given situation. Humans are in some ways very consistent in our responses, we smile and laugh when we are happy and in a good mood, we tend to be more cynical and pessimistic when we are down, but we are also very inconsistent, as evidenced by our mood swings between the two examples given above. And how to explain why we are feeling good, or down? Sometimes it is easy enough, we get a piece of good news and we become happy and energetic, but often times we just feel good for no apparent reason. When you get to be of a certain age you learn not to question or look for reasons but rather to ride the wave while you’ve got it, just as you also learn not to dwell too hard on the down times, because they won’t last.

Attraction is another one of those elements of human nature that fascinates me. What attracts us, physically, sexually, emotionally to some people more than others? Scientists and psychologists try to study such matters and propose some interesting and even plausible theories to explain the so-called laws of attraction, but inevitably such scientific explanations have their flaws in that they can’t predict with consistency how people will respond in given situations. Attraction seems to have a certain physical or chemical element, but this is also dependent on the situation, the mood, the response of the object of your attraction, even the time of day. The old joke back in college was that the girls get better looking as last call approaches. But how someone responds to your initial offer of interest plays a big role as well. And if someone initiates the interest, they also take on an elevated status. Which is not to say that you become interested in anyone who looks your way, there are still matters of preference and chemical attraction and your mood at the time, not to mention your overall receptiveness to others and your skills of observation.

One thing that I believe is a fundamental element of our human experience, and the thought that drove me originally to start writing this piece, is our desire for human contact, and in particular our desire to elicit some sort of response from others. In physics there is the concept of every action producing an equal and opposite reaction. Since we are referring to the social science of human behavior, there is no formula that will predict with much accuracy the equal and opposite part, but the notion that everything we do is designed, consciously or not, to produce some sort of reaction is in my opinion at the heart of our human existence.

It is well noted that babies need stimulus to properly develop, that those extreme situations where babies are denied contact produces tragic results in terms of their development. I don’t remember the name of it, but there was a movie with Jodie Foster where she was in such a situation, and she had no concept of interacting with others or with her environment. One of the first things we are conditioned to do as humans is to cry, because somehow we learn that this action produces a reaction, namely food or comfort. As we age our behaviors become more subtle and more indirect, a teenager acting out because they aren’t getting enough attention, a spouse becoming unfaithful because their partner has seemingly stopped noticing them and responding to our needs, a world leader pretending to have weapons of mass destruction in order to tweak a more powerful nation.

Everything we do is intended to get a response, even if the desired response is to just be left alone, as we can often signal such desires with our own body language or lack of eye contact in a social setting. The things we say and do, sometimes calculated, sometimes without thinking, the eye we catch and hold, the smile we return, the embrace in which we hold on for just a tad longer than normal, these are all ways we have of communicating in hopes that we elicit some sort of response from those we are communicating with.

Think of how we use technology, most of the newer technologies that have taken off in the modern era are centered around some form of interaction and allow us to do so quicker and more often than ever before, often in real time. Cell phones allow us to stay in constant contact, and texting takes that even further. Email allows us to communicate more frequently than did letter writing, and instant messaging allows even more rapid contact and response time. Social networking sites have become all the rage, from My Space to Facebook to Twitter, people are expressing a desire not only to act and react with friends and loved ones but with total strangers, often people from far flung places whom we would never have the opportunity to interact with otherwise.

There is the saying that no man is an island, and while again we can give some abnormal example of the hermit who lives in isolation in the woods somewhere, the norm is that people are social creatures, that a large element of our human nature is our desire to reach out to others in hopes of getting some sort of response out of them. It is what motivates musicians to write and perform music, actors to get on stage or in front of a camera, writers to put pen to paper. The responses we get then go a long ways toward determining our attitudes and beliefs, and ultimately our behavior.

There aren’t really answers to questions regarding human nature and why we behave as we do and why we are attracted to who we are, mostly there are only more questions posed. This is a field of study more suited for philosophy than for science or even psychology, although as with most areas of interest, we get a fuller picture when we consider the findings of different disciplines. One thing is for certain though, humans are an interesting lot, and human nature being what it is, we can expect that will not change anytime soon. It gives us something to always ponder on, to discuss and debate, to write about, and while we may never answer such universal questions as the nurture versus nature debate, it sure makes passing our time here on this earth a good deal more interesting.

The 20 Minute Column

I am attempting a new form this morning, what I am calling the 20 minute column. U2 has a song called 40, which they explained at the end of their concert when I saw them at the LA Sports Arena back in 1989, got its name because they were needing one more track for their album, so they put together this song and laid it all down in 40 minutes. If you're not familiar with the tune, the lyrics are "I will sing a new song/How long to sing a song" and if it sounds simple it is but that is also its beauty. I'll try to be a little more intricate than to simply write that I will write, but the point of this exercise for me is to see what I can put together in a short time in a relatively few amount of words.

One reason for this is because this week on my break I am going to try my hand at blogging on other sites besides my own, and my understanding is that short and sweet, which are not necessarily my strong points, are what is required in that medium. The topic today is teaching, and it is inspired by an article in the most recent issue of the New Yorker magazine by noted author Malcolm Gladwell, of The Tipping Point fame, on the issue of what makes for a good teacher and how we can possibly scout them out so that we hire the best people for one of our societies' most important tasks.

As a veteran high school teacher with well over a decade plying my craft, I have a few opinions on the matter. The first premise that I will make is that a quality school starts and ends with quality teachers, plain and simple. You can have all the discussions about technology and resources, class sizes, strong administrators, and things like all day kindergarten, which our own soon to be ex-governor here in Arizona is enamored with, but all that, as they say, doesn't amount to a hill of beans if you don't have quality educators working directly with the kids on a daily basis.

Gladwell cited research suggesting that in a classroom with a poor teacher, students generally learn a half of a year's material in a school year, while those with an excellent teacher learn a year and a half's worth of material. It is easy to see how students in what are referred to as under performing schools can fall behind pretty quickly. I can attest to this, having taught in one such school in urban and poor South Phoenix for six years before recently moving to a performing arts school with rigorous academic standards chock full of mostly middle and upper middle class strivers.

The students at my old school were on average reading at a 6th grade level, some much lower, and those high school juniors and seniors that were actually reading at an 8th or 9th grade level were the more advanced kids. Suffice to say, the obstacles to teaching were great, I did the best I could certainly and I like to think that I helped my students to move along, but I'm under no illusion that one or two good teachers at that stage of the game are going to move the needle drastically in the upward direction. You would probably need kids who have been held back by poor primary and middle school environments to take 6-8 years of quality high school instruction if they were to ever catch up to their peers who have had quality teachers all along.

So what makes a good teacher? In Gladwell's article he makes the comparison to the difficulty an NFL scout has in determining which college quarterback is poised for pro greatness and which is the next Ryan Leaf. Teaching is like many talents, much more of an art than a science. Education courses taught to prospective teachers are by and large a waste of time at best, and a complete joke at worst, with a very few exceptions. Teaching isn't about mastering content, although that is certainly an important element of success, yet it is much more than that. We've all had college professors that seemed very knowledgeable on their subject matter but that nonetheless never got through to us.

Teaching is the art of taking knowledge and utilizing it in a way that reaches people, in a way that cuts through the layers of the inconsequential and gets to the heart of the matter. It is about relationships, balancing compassion and caring for students with the need to provide a positive role model and authority figure. It requires a blend of inspiration, motivation, and the demands of a task master to get kids to do more and learn more and understand more than they ever imagined that they could. And then to inspire them to want to learn and know even more.

Teaching is a constant challenge and an opportunity, and while I wish the pay was better, it is still something that I enjoy immensely and appreciate having the chance to do every day, which is also how I feel about writing. And my 20 minutes is up so I will bid you adieu for now. I will close with a thought that is fundamental to good teaching and to reaching students. Referring to those students, it is often said that they don't care what you know until they know that you care. Once they do however, and kids are very adept and recognizing genuineness, they will go to the wall for you, which makes teaching such a pleasure and a passion for me.

Things I Can Do Without

There are plenty of things that this crazy world needs more of, such as tolerance and respect and educated and enlightened people. To answer the question posed by the great musician Elvis Costello, nothing is so funny about peace, love, and understanding, and we could use a great deal more of it. At a basic level, many people, both at home and around the world, especially what are referred to as the world's bottom billion, can use more food and medical care and safety and security from the bad actors that plague them. But this is not a column about things we need more of, this one is about things we need less of, in particular things I can do without.

I can do without a fat bastard preacher having anything to do with the inauguration. Rick Warren, who I had never heard of before the campaign season, and would have been more than content to have kept it that way, has nonetheless crept into my consciousness. He is the pastor at some mega church in Orange County that apparently is one of the dominant mega churches and therefore this guy is like the Protestant equivalent of the Pope, or at least one of the Cardinals or Bishops, why the Catholics name their high ranking members after chess pieces and football teams is beyond me, but never mind for now.

So this guy is on record as not only being against one of the most fundamental civil rights that exists in our supposedly secular society, that being the right to choose one's life partner and marry that person, but he is hard core anti-gay marriage. My understanding is that he has equivocated gays to child molesters, polygamists, and those who go for incest, I'm not sure there is a name for such people, incestors sounds too much like investors. Did you hear the one about the brother and sister at Citigroup, never mind.

Our president to-be has apparently decided that it is somehow a good idea to invite this jackass to speak at the festivities next month, apparently in an ultra lame attempt to appease conservative Christians who wouldn't support Obama if he walked on water and turned a $5 dollar bill into enough money to bail out the auto industry. Not only is this symbolic decision highly offensive to gay people and all those who are fierce supporters of civil rights in this country, a category that used to include black folks before they got their share and decided that that was enough civil rights for one lifetime, but is plain stupid from a cost-benefit analysis, which is what should determine such symbolic decisions. The benefit of cozying up to the religious right is minimal at best, while the cost of pissing off strong supporters who got the guy elected in the first place is pretty great. This one decision won't turn us away from our guy, but he has just blown a good deal of good will and we are on notice that Obama as president may be trying to please everybody which usually ends up resulting in pleasing nobody. Inclusiveness is all good and well, but to include a bigot who has spoken against not only gays and lesbians but Jews as well is not a good idea and it's disturbing that it comes from someone who is supposed to be sharp.

Another thing I can do without is the Kennedy's. Caroline Kennedy is the supposed front-runner for the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hilary Clinton. While I don't really care a great deal who New York chooses for the seat, I don't think it is either fair or wise to put someone in place based on their name. I thought we were supposed to pretend to be a meritocracy, and yet we seem poised to put someone into one of the most important and powerful positions our republic has to offer simply because they are part of an overrated political dynasty. Maybe she is qualified, maybe she is smart and knowledgeable about national policies. Or maybe she is just a liberal version of Sarah Palin, who as much as I despise her and what she stands for, at least had some experience in government.

Lest you think that all I can do without has to do with politics, here are some other items for the list. I can do without bald white guys with goatees. First off, who told white guys they looked good with a shaved dome. I'm not talking about guys who are going bald naturally, for one thing that can't be helped, you either get good hair genes or you don't, and besides, I think that guys who are balding but keep their hair trimmed short look cool and distinguished. They're not trying to fool anyone with the old comb over, but they are keeping what hair they have left neatly trimmed and well kept. My dad and Jerry Brown come to mind on that note. But these guys that shave their heads clean look like some breed of egg headed space aliens. And then when you add the goatee to the mix that puts me over the top. I'm not a fan of goatees to begin with, unless you are a jazz musician, I personally think that real men wear full beards, mustaches are cool in a Tom Selleck sort of way, and being clean shaven is not a bad idea except that it requires too much work for my tastes, but goatees are just sort of weak. So bald guys with goatees, in my humble opinion, need to stop shaving the dome and start shaving the chin, either that or let it grow up the sides as well.

I can do without 34 college football bowl games. Give me the good old days, where there were only a handful of pre-New Year's games to ignore, and when New Year's Day meant a full slate of pigskin action, starting with the Cotton Bowl in the morning, the Rose Bowl in the afternoon, and then the night cap of the Sugar and Orange Bowls on opposing channels in the evening. The next day when the final AP and UPI polls came out we knew who the national champ was, and then we moved on with our lives and focused on the NFL playoffs. Now we've got games for nearly two weeks leading up to New Year's Day, but then the games get dragged out for another week after New Year's until the fake national title game, which often comes on a Tuesday night when even school teachers like me have to get up for work the next day. In case you are not of the same mind of me, then by all means, enjoy the Magic Jack St. Petersburg Bowl today, and no I did not make that up, that's an actual game, only one of four on the ESPN family of networks, as they say.

There's more that I could do without, but it is the holiday season after all so I suppose I'd better cut this before I ruin the spirit of the season. But one last thing before I go on that note, I can do without all of the other holiday celebrations that aren't Christmas or Hanukkah. These are the traditional winter holidays, and I neither care nor want to know anything about Kwanzaa, or the Pagan Winter Solstice, or any other holiday that some disaffected group is insisting be paid attention to. So Merry Xmas and Happy Hanukkah, and if you are a Buddhist or Hindu or Muslim or African, or Pagan, or Atheist or Agnostic, Merry Xmas anyways. I don't have the mental energy to concern myself with your beliefs, and besides, I'm busy trying to figure out whether or not Navy will cover the spread in the Magic Jack Bowl.

Emptying the Notebook

Time to empty the old political notebook in my head and get some stuff out on the page, lest it end up causing even more clutter than is already up there in my middle-aged head. That's right, I said it, it occurred to me on my run the other night that despite mine and my generation's best efforts to deny the obvious, I am officially middle-aged, probably have been for a few years, but I've come to the realization and acceptance of this simple fact of biology, and to be honest it doesn't really concern me much. But that is the topic for another time, for now it's time to clear up some mental hard drive space.

The first topic on my mind is the pay to play scandal that is developing around the Illinois governor. Blago will go down as a footnote in an exceptional year for politics, and will probably be remembered more for his haircut than anything else when all is said and done. Look, the guy is a dirt bag and none too bright for verbalizing his demands in a phone conversation when he has been under investigation and likely to be bugged. Don't these guys know about cell phones? It's amazing that bugging even occurs anymore as it seems so easy to circumvent. He's probably the same type of guy who writes emails to his mistress on his wife's computer. But I digress. Is anyone really shocked to learn that our political system is well, political. Doesn't pay to play occur across the board in the form of big campaign contributions, and for that matter isn't it a feature of much our lives, from the offices we work in to the youth organizations our kids belong to? I'm not saying let the guy off the hook, he deserves whatever is coming his way for his arrogance and ineptitude, but let's not pretend that this is a shocking event that offends our sense of pure democratic ideals.

What a difference a war makes. Remember just a few years back when the Dixie Chicks and France were public enemies number one and two. France had the gaul (pun intended) to not support our war of terror (Borat's line) on Iraq. And the Dixie Chicks had the nerve to criticize our president across the pond, and as a result got blacklisted off of country radio and where ever else they could be banned from. Now an Iraqi reporter throws his shoes at our president, and outside of the Fox News crowd nobody seems to be overly concerned or outraged. It's fodder for the late night comedians and the video is replayed more often than a Dixie Chicks song before the controversy. If ever there was a president who will be happy to exit the big stage, Bush is it. I imagine he's marking his calendar every day until January 20th when he can go back to his ranch in Texas and let Obama take all the heat. We can only hope that Obama's secret service staff is a little quicker on the draw than Bush's boys were.

Is anyone else as excited as me about the latest Obama appointments to his cabinet? Did you hear about the new energy secretary? How about the choice for education secretary? Can we stop pretending that this stuff is ground breaking and that we know anything about these people that would allow us to form an opinion. It reminds me of the NFL Draft, and once the Secretaries of State, Defense, and Treasury are picked, the rest is defensive tackles in the fourth round. Which is to say, unless you are a serious political geek, the equivalent of a Denver Broncos fan who knows who their teams backup long snapper is and what his best assets are, the rest of these appointments will be forgotten in a matter of days and will go about their business behind the scenes, which is how it should be. The Department of Health and Human Services is now on the clock.

It seems to me that our economic brain trust is merely tilting at windmills with all the attempts to avert the inevitable economic crisis. The Fed has now lowered interest rates to near zero, which still won't do much to spur banks to lend money since they have become gun shy about parting with their capital, and it is unlikely that businesses will be looking to expand in this economy and taking advantage of the lower rates. The one positive may be in the housing market, as this may lead to lower mortgage rates which could motivate some potential buyers to get off the sidelines. We hear so much talk of the Great Depression and how we need stimulus, apparently this is based on the economic theories of John Maynard Keynes, what is known as Keynesian theory or philosophy. I am doubtful that we are approaching anything like a depression, great or otherwise, and I think much of this economic stimulus is dubious at best. There is an argument for spending money on infrastructure and the like, but I'm not exactly high in confidence that our government will make wise decisions on how to spend the money we don't even have, or in their ability to actually get the money to its intended targets without it being syphoned off by so many middle men as usually seems to happen with such stimulus programs. We've spent almost $350 billion so far on the financial bailout program and I'm not seeing the effects of that money, other than on our national debt.

But not all hope is lost, there is some good news on the horizon, and it is coming in the form of lower prices, not only at the pump but across the board. A new report out has prices down 3%, which means that for those of us fortunate enough to have jobs, which even with nearly 7% unemployment would still suggest that means that 93% of us are employed, so for those of us who still bring home a paycheck, this means that those checks will go just a bit further. And how sweet is it to be able to fill up the tank without going over the $50 debit card limit? I can now fill up my 16 gallon tank with premium for under $30, it may not be much but it is what passes for the wealth effect during this recession.

Now that feels better, the hard drive is only 92% full, so I've got room to add some more stuff up there until it's time to empty it out again. I've got my two week winter break coming up so I will have some time to write some essays I've been planning, and of course to continue offering my two cents on the issues that keep us political junkies going from day to day.

Do it Yourself

Here I was thinking that my work was done. As my son would say, good one Dad. Actually I’m pretty sure he gets that line from me, but he has taken it and made it his own. Something I took from my dad is the notion that if you want a job done right, you’d better damn well do it yourself without relying on someone else to do it for you. Like most advice and knowledge I’ve picked up over the years from my pops, this sentiment is right on the money.

So I was thinking that now that my boy is in high school that I can basically retire from coaching and just sit back and let the paid professionals do the work. I can sit back and just be the dad in the stands, secure in my knowledge that he will get the proper training and guidance from his coaches. Good one. Which is not to say that he doesn’t get and won’t receive some good coaching, who knows maybe even excellent coaching once he rises through the ranks to the varsity levels. It is also not to say that I will become one of those vain glorious parents whose every move is calculated to gain advantage for his son regardless of how that might effect the team, and believe me, as a long time participant in coaching youth sports, I have run across more of those types than I care to remember. I won’t be emailing the coach with suggestions of what type of zone defense to play, well that’s a bad example because zone defenses are for pansies, but you get the point.

What I will be doing however is continuing to work individually with my son Jake on his game, on his physical conditioning, on his fundamental skills, and on his mental approach to the game, which are all the things that good coaches do with their players, and having coached youth and high school sports for over a decade are areas in which I have a good deal of experience. Because if I want my boy to reach his full potential, then I need to step up as a dad and bring what I can to the table in order to help him get there. It just so happens that he is a ballplayer so what he is pursuing is right up my alley. Lucky for him that he doesn’t want to be an auto mechanic, a pool guy, or anyone that works with tools, because he’d pretty much be on his own then.

The bigger picture here is that if we want things done, we need to step up and make them happen. I believe that as individuals and as a society, we are too reliant on others to get the job done on our behalf. It should be noted here that whenever I use the term we I am certainly including myself, I am certainly not immune to the weaknesses that I often rail against, something I just wanted to throw in there lest anyone think I am trying to portray myself as some high and mighty sage sitting on my perch and dictating to others what they should be doing.

We rely on our government way too much. I’ve recently read some quotes by noted Libertarian and Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul to the effect that we have become overly reliant on our government to come to our rescue, and as a result we have given over enormous powers to said government to act on our behalf. The problem is that once you become dependent on someone or something, by definition you lose your independence, and with it your freedom and your sense of accountability. One need look no further than the current political climate to see the impact of this type of welfare mentality. We want the government to bail out our industries, to cut us welfare checks in the form of tax rebate stimulus, which sound a lot better than calling it what it really is.

We want our new president to wave his magic wand and miraculously make all of our problems disappear overnight, or at least by the spring. Certainly government has a responsibility to accomplish certain tasks that we are not equipped to handle on our own, such as building roads and providing for police protection and a military to protect our national interests and security. But the founders of our republic would do the old turn in their graves if they came back today and watched just a few minutes of CNN or read the New York Times and learned about 850 billion dollar bailouts, wars being fought with borrowed money, and a 10 trillion dollar national debt. They would be appalled at how centralized our system has become, and by how much power we the people have handed over to our government.

It’s not just the government that we expect to offer up the magic elixir that makes all of our troubles disappear, we have this reliance on others in many other facets of our lives as well. We expect the public education system to truly educate our kids for example. While the schools have a role to play, I’m here to tell you that if you as a parent are relying on lowly paid public servants to enlighten your children you are in for disappointment. Some teachers are excellent, some have no business being in the classroom but are protected by tenure and teacher’s unions that resist any sort of accountability for their members, but most are simply mediocre, just doing what they need to do to get through the day and the school year until summer vacation. If you want your kids to be truly educated, that needs to happen in the home, with discussions and debates and reading books. A parent should be his child’s own personal tutor, and the schools are there to supplement this instruction.

We expect other people to mow our lawns, clean our pools, and wash our cars. Not that this suggests some moral failing on our part, many of these types of services are a convenience and a luxury that those of us who can afford it enjoy, in our busy lives these are valuable time savers. Other services are more necessary, like going to a mechanic to get your car fixed, but we have become much less inclined in our modern age to do it ourselves. We even now rely on GPS systems to tell us how to get around, and cars that park themselves. Again, not the end of western civilization here, but another indicator that are losing our sense of self-reliance, and as a former pizza guy, you don’t even want to get me started on GPS devices, to me that’s even worse than playing a zone defense.

We scour the vast self-help sections of the book stores looking for someone else to unlock the secrets to success, when often the keys to the locks are within us all the time if only we would spend more time in self-reflection and consideration of what we can do for ourselves to make our lives richer and more fulfilling. We watch Dr. Phil and Suze Orman for advice on how to manage our affairs, but most of this is simply common sense, the tricky part is to actually apply these principles to our lives on a consistent basis. We search for the latest trendy diets and weight-loss miracles, when the key to good health and weight maintenance is the same as it’s always been, eat healthy low fat foods, plenty of fruits, veggies, whole grains, lean meats, and exercise regularly with intensity. There, I just wrote a how to get and stay fit self-help book in a few sentences, and saved you the trip to Barnes and Noble and $24.95 to boot.

Doing the job right is an old-school value, and doing things yourself is the best way to ensure that the job gets done the way it needs to be. Self-reliance is one of the original American values, from the image of the independent minded colonists who settled the nation in the 17th and 18th centuries, to the cowboys and pioneers who expanded our territory in the 19th century, to the self-made captains of industry that built our modern 20th century economy, to the start-up entrepreneurs of the modern era, rugged individuality is a truly American archetype, and one that serves us well. It is something that should be valued highly, encouraged by government policy, and practiced by all of us as often and as thoroughly as we can. A nation of strong individuals, free to pursue their dreams and confident in their ability to reach their goals is the best kind of nation to live in, and really strikes at the heart of what our republic is supposed to be all about.

Bonus Babies

Time for a little midweek rant, you can consider it to be a bonus edition. Did someone say bonus?

One of the CEO’s of one of the big banks that is either being bailed out by the government or being bought out by another bank that will eventually be bailed out by the government, had what some might call the audacity to ask for a cool ten million before he exited stage right. Audacity because after running his company into the ground, he expects a hefty payout for his performance, hence the name performance bonuses. But there is certainly nothing audacious about wanting to grab some on the way out, like none of us has ever taken a few office supplies on our way out the door. It’s all a matter of scale right? And I think that there are so many other worthy individuals who should be getting nice performance bonuses this Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanza and whatever festival the Pagans celebrate season.

Let’s start with Rick Wagoner, the often maligned CEO of GM. All the guy did was maximize profits for himself and his ilk and now apparently he will be forced out by the new bailout plan. But I say we send him on his way with a nice parting gift, say 5 million should be enough to tide him over until he can get another job and drive some other company off the cliff. You got to give the guy credit too, because not only was he able to take his company to the brink of bankruptcy and see tens of thousands of workers let go, but then he engineers the taxpayer bailout. Genius this guy. And GM can’t be doing all that bad, I sat through dozens of Cadillac commercials during the football game the other afternoon, and all the guys in the commercial were happy and buying expensive Cadillac’s, the dude who talks about how his kids always get the good presents so he’s buying himself a Caddy this year is my favorite. I’m gonna try that one sometime, hey honey, I just got tired of all this selfless crap and I know we don’t have much in the savings, but f it, I just went out and bought myself a Caddy. But honey, it was marked down 12 grand so I got it for only 57K, it was too good to pass up. And they say that we’re in a recession and the auto companies could go under, please.

While we’re in Detroit, let’s throw around some more bonus money, I’ve got a couple of football coaches in mind who have been working tirelessly and deserve some extra mullah this time of year, I’m talking money by the way, not some Muslim leader, nobody wants that kind of bonus. The head coach of the Detroit Lions, Marty something or other, has guided his team to a perfect record so far, 0-13 on the season. I say he deserves a raise! And let’s not leave out the college coach in the region, Rich Rodriguez, who came to Michigan from West Virginia and proceeded to guide the Big Blue to their worst record in their 129 year history of playing football. Surely that is worth a nice fat envelope full of cash under the tree. Let’s not forget Charlie Weiss, the coach of once legendary Notre Dame who has replaced Gerry Faust and Bob Davie as the poster boy for mediocre coaches at South Bend. Old Charlie looks like he likes to put away a steak or two every now and again, so I say in addition to his bonus we throw in a gift card for Outback or even a little Black Angus action if we’re really feeling generous.

And I am feeling generous, having other people’s (read taxpayers and stock holders) money to throw around puts me in the mood to just spend baby, so let’s move on from sports to the world of entertainment. I propose a huge bonus for one of our generation’s true artists, an actor in the mold of Brando, Pacino, and Newman. That’s right, Keanu Reeves baby, now granted I haven’t seen one of his flicks since the one where he was jumping out of a plane with Patrick Swayze, which my wife and I saw back when we were dating so that was a really long time ago, but I’ve heard this guy is a real master. They tell me that he should have won an Oscar for that movie where he drove the bus with no brakes, and the ones where he is a matrix, whatever the hell that means, but you know how the Academy is. So give the man his bonus. And while we’re at it, let’s hook Tom Cruise up, just because he hasn’t made a decent movie since Jerry McGuire is no reason to punish the guy. You want to see him jump up and down on Oprah’s couch again, show him the money and watch out.

Of course we can’t forget our favorite politicians, Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld, the trifecta of incompetence and bad decision making who brought us the great Iraq War, and record setting deficits among other feats. Now that they are leaving public office for good, or at least until the fickle American public grows tired of Obama and puts Jeb Bush in office and he brings his brother on board as Secretary of State (don’t laugh, who would have ever guessed that the Clintons would return to power back in late 2000) this trio of geniuses should get a little thank you gift from a grateful nation, something to hold them until the first advance on their memoirs comes in. Or until the Bush library starts bringing in revenues. The Bush library, how ironic is that?

I’m sure there are many other deserving candidates, but they will have to wait until the next go-round. I mean, we’ve got to show a little fiscal restraint around here, lest people get the idea that money grows on trees. Even taxpayers and stock holders have limits to their patience and understanding, or so they tell me.

Dad's Football Recap

Alright Pops, now that around 80% of my readers have clicked over to somewhere else, it’s just you and me and a few other various sports fans and diehards to talk a little pigskin. We are heading down the stretch in the NFL season with 3 weeks to go after tonight’s important Monday night match up, and in college the BCS has made their proclamations and determined who among the nine teams with a legitimate claim to play for the title got the nod, and who filled out the remaining of the available bowl slots.

Starting with the pros, where they still settle it like men, the old-fashioned way on the field of play. (Since most of my readers are women and they have mostly glossed over this one, I can be all machismo this morning, which I think is necessary to get the workweek off to a start) With 13 games down and 3 to go the Titans and Giants remain at the head of their respective classes, Tennessee is a stellar 12-1 while NYG is at 11-2 after losing a close game to the Eagles yesterday, who may have salvaged their season with the win. The Titans have clinched and now face the dilemma of how hard to go after it these last three weeks, they run the risk of needless injuries or of losing their sharpness depending on what they do, and they will need to be sharp heading into the AFC tournament as the competition is pretty steep.

The Steelers and Colts are looking like the biggest challengers at this point outside of Nashville, Pittsburgh had an impressive 4th quarter comeback against the Cowboys yesterday, outscoring Dallas 17-0 in the last quarter. You gotta like a team that can close a game like that, and Pitt has all the ingredients that make for success in January, good QB play, a running game, an offensive line that gets after it, a stellar defense, and quality coaching, which is the same formula for success since back in the 60’s when you used to watch the games. Another team to watch for though is the Baltimore Ravens, who have those same ingredients. They closed out the Redskins last night with a 4th quarter drive that was a thing of beauty for this old-school football fan.

After the ‘Skins got to within a touchdown with over 11 minutes still to go, Baltimore proceeded to take the ball and run with it, literally for something like 11 or 12 straight plays, marching down the field, moving the chains, and eating up precious clock. Then just when they had the Washington defense sucked in, they go long and their rookie QB Joe Flaco delivers the knockout blow with a touchdown pass. Ballgame. Indy is looking well also, they are on a roll and are tied with Baltimore for the two wild card spots at 9-4. There are a bunch of 8-5 teams that are in contention, but none of them strike me as serious contenders for anything more than a first round playoff exit, and that group includes the Broncos, Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins.

Over in the NFC the Giants are still the dominant team despite their division loss yesterday, and can clinch with a win over the up and down Cowboys this Sunday. The Cowboys are a disappointing 8-5, that is unless you are a Cowboy hater like me, in which case you take perverse pleasure in their struggle, being just good enough to give their fans hope but then inevitably crushing those hopes. The only thing you can count on with the Cowboys is that the most overrated wide out on the planet, the guy I call Toe because he’s only worth one syllable, will have a diva moment on the sidelines where the cameras capture him yelling at some assistant coach over some perceived wrong. The Eagles and Redskins are still alive for the wild card, as are a bunch of other teams who really don’t matter because they’re not much good.

The two teams that do seem up to the challenge of knocking the defending champs off their perch will match up tonight in an old-fashioned Monday nighter, which is to say a game with playoff implications. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by old guy QB Jeff Garcia go up against the Carolina Panthers, the winner will emerge at 10-3 and in control in the South Division, while even the loser will still be at 9-4 and in control in the wild card race. (As an aside, a guy just sat down next to me at Starbucks with an SF Giants cap, and it reminds me of the guy I threw up near at the Dodger game when I was a kid on picture day when we got there early and I pounded about 5 or 6 orange sodas on a hot summer day. Ahh, the memories)

You may have heard that the Arizona Cardinals have clinched a division title, as it seems to be newsworthy considering it hasn’t happened since 1975, when your second son was born. Don’t get too excited about the Cards though, they have an 8-5 record, but 5 of those wins have come within the division, which is the weakest in the league. To give you an idea, the Seahawks and Rams will be battling for 3rd place when they do battle this Sunday, both teams are 2-11, and the second place ‘Niners need to run the table in order to finish at .500. So with a 3-5 record outside the division, the Red Birds seem poised for an early exit come the playoffs, but they are selling some gear, I’ve never seen so much Cardinals paraphernalia as I have over the last couple months out here.

The last theme I want to mention before I move to the college scene and their faux championship game, is that this is the year of the old guy QB’s in the NFL. I am officially rooting for any team with an old guy QB, which includes Kurt Warner of the Cards, Jeff Garcia of the Bucs, Kerry Collins of the Titans, and Brett Favre, the dean of the club playing for the Jets. Since my Raiders are off to yet another season of double digit losses at 3-10, I’ve got to have someone to root for and who better than the old guys who are getting it done. And I don’t know how they do it, two hours after my 5 or 6 mile runs, my 38 year-old legs are feeling every bit of it, and these guys play NFL football every Sunday. The only thing I can think is that it must take them hours to get out of bed on Monday morning, kind of like Mac Davis in the movie “North Dallas Forty”.

So as for the college façade, the Ministry of Championships has determined that the two best teams in the country are Oklahoma and Florida, and therefore they will be playing for the title, more mythical than ever, a week after New Year’s. Both teams are superb, but so are seven other teams that finished the season with one loss or fewer. That group includes outsiders Utah and Boise State who I’m pretty sure are unbeaten, and big conference teams Texas, who beat Oklahoma yet got jumped in the bogus polls by the Sooners, Texas Tech, who beat Texas, USC, Penn State, and Alabama, who didn’t lose all season until going down to the Florida Gators in the SEC championship on Saturday.

How any ranking system, human, computer, or otherwise can pick two among these teams is beyond me, since they don’t play each other and therefore there is no way to determine which conference is better and which teams are actually the best. Oh wait, I just thought of a way, how about an 8 team playoff to decide it on the field, the way the NFL does? Too bad the geniuses that run the sport, mainly the college presidents who have the biggest say in such things, are such a dense bunch, because having an 8 team playoff played out over three weeks seems to me to be a huge event that would garner great TV ratings and please football fans, a win-win if there ever was one. An idea so good only a bunch of academics could fail to see it.

The game that still matters the most to me though is the granddaddy of ‘em all, the Rose Bowl, which is still played on New Year’s Day, and this year should be a good one as ‘SC takes on Penn State. Since our Bruins couldn’t pull off the upset on Saturday, the Trojans are back in the big game for the fourth straight year, and with their offensive prowess and speed figure to roll over the Nittany Lions, but you never know, the Big Ten did get two teams into the BCS as Ohio State will be playing Texas in the Fiesta Bowl. Another interesting bowl match-up is the Sugar Bowl, which features Alabama against Utah, it is always interesting to see how the non-BCS schools do against the Big Boys. The other game is a dog and matches the winners of two conferences that don’t even deserve an automatic bid anymore and are therefore not even worth the mention. In fact, my criteria for bowl watching this year is that the game must be a contest between two ten win teams or better, which may relegate me to the big games just mentioned.

Alright sports fans, consider yourselves updated. Here’s hoping that this week moves quickly, and remember, only 17 more shopping days until Xmas. In case you weren’t watching football yesterday afternoon and you missed the 37 Cadillac commercials, you can run out and get your new Escalade for 12K off of list price, at only 57K! But hurry while supplies last, and the company that makes them is still in business.

Getting Our House in Order

The other night at my daughter’s opening show with her youth theater group, while manning the booth at the concession stand with my wife and some of the other moms who were volunteering that night, the conversation turned as it does so often these days to the economy, specifically the housing and stock markets. While wolfing down my fish tacos and rice and black beans before intermission and the rush of patrons that would need tending to, I was able to catch bits and pieces of the conversation. My hearing is pretty much shot by now, I suppose from years of listening to loud music as I’m doing while writing this (a Chicago CD I kited off my mom by the way, if you’re reading this mom I’ll get it back to you next time you’re out) so I can’t really say I heard all that was said, but what I lack in auditory sensation I generally more than make up for with a pretty strong sense of perception.

So best as I can tell, the conversation went something like this:

1st mom: We just moved here a few months ago (the here in this case I should note is Anthem, AZ which is a nice little master planned community in the exurbs of Phoenix that is home to the well-off and those who pretend to be) and we are so upside-down in our house. I don’t see how we’re ever going to be able to move.

2nd mom: I hear you, with all that my husband lost in the stock market that only makes it worse, but you know, I really think this will all be over in about six months or so and things will be back to normal.

3rd mom: (Who also happens to be a local realtor) You know I sure hope so, I don’t even watch the news anymore it’s sooo depressing. All the houses I sell anymore are foreclosures.

Me: (in my head as I dig into the black beans) These beans are kinda bland. Oh, sorry I’m supposed to be pretending that I am sympathetic to their plight. Sure to a point I am, these are all nice gals and I in no way wish any ill toward them or their families. But they are sooo indicative of our society today. We’re all sitting up here in Anthem, living a life that 98% of the world’s population would kill for, we still have a roof over our heads, nice cars to drive, designer jeans on our backsides, the whole nine yards, but we are whining about the predicament we are in. We are complaining because we can’t go shopping the way we used to, and maybe we’ll have to keep our SUV’s for longer than the standard two years, our $400 Coach purses will have to last longer than two years as well, sigh, it’s all so depressing.

Well I’m here to say, that while I certainly sympathize with people to an extent, nobody likes to have to make downward adjustments in their lifestyle, my true thought is a favorite line that my best friend’s grandma blurted out one time as kids when we did or said something that offended her. “Ahhh, bullshit!” It really says it quite nicely, and sometimes I would love to just interject in such a conversation, at just the right moment when there is a brief pause and silence while the participants mull in their minds the next thing they should complain about, “Ahhh bullshit!” Then go right back to finishing up my rice and beans, which were a little bland by the way in case I forgot to mention, but the fish tacos were decent although the corn tortilla fell apart on the second one, leaving my palm to serve as a fish taco backstop while I tried to maintain a small level of decorum yet still not let the good sauce that had dripped onto my hand go to waste in a napkin.

Look, it’s quite simple really, and at the heart of it is what is suggested in the title of this column, we need to get our house in order. We have put ourselves in this situation that we are in, not George Bush, not China, not France, not Muslims, or Osama bin Laden, or gay people that want to get married, or poor Mexicans crossing the desert in search of jobs, or any of the other usual scapegoats we like to pin our problems on.

Nobody put a gun to our heads and made us take out expensive mortgages on oversized and overpriced houses, or to buy or lease cars that could transport an entire Indian family in Bombay, or to buy flat screen TV’s and I-Phones and expensive jeans and whatever else our hearts desired. We’re all in on this to varying degrees, and we’re all responsible for getting ourselves out of this. To a large degree, our society, and my generation in particular, has become decadent and bloated, and it’s time to suck it up and make some changes, lest we go down in history as the Weakest Generation, a book that hopefully Tom Brokaw never has to write.

So while I feel sympathy and a certain level of empathy for what people are going through, being upside-down in their two biggest assets, their house and their cars, and with a stock portfolio and savings that aren’t offering much solace, I also feel a certain sense I am seeing that people are getting what has been coming to them for quite some time. I would equate it to the way I feel when I see a fat guy, I feel bad for him and for having to live with the physical and social consequences of being overweight, but I also know firsthand that it is based on choices that he has made, on poor judgment, and on a lack of discipline pure and simple. And just like the fat guy can decide to get himself together and get into shape, so can we as a society.

To get ourselves financially fit, not to mention ethically and morally right, we need to first realize and acknowledge that we have a problem. We need to look in the mirror with no clothes on, nothing to hide the rolls and stretch marks we have developed over the last few decades, and take stock of the decisions that we have made that got us to this point. Things like our gross consumption of material goods and natural resources with no thought to the long term, the economic equivalent of frequenting the drive through at a fast food burger joint. You eat enough of that crap and it’s gonna get you sooner or later. You spend enough on crap you don’t need and it’s gonna get you too.

Secondly we need to be willing to sweat and sacrifice, then we need to actually do it. We need to strap on the running shoes and get out on the road, as painful as the first steps will be, the end result is worth the initial sacrifice. We need to stop our bad habits, not only in our personal habits but in the type of political rhetoric we buy into and the policies we support. The next time our government tries to sell us some bullshit war or a bogus bailout we need to step and up and just say no. We need to demand accountability from corporate America as well, as their inequitable and unjust system of pay is largely responsible for where we are, and many of us have gone along willingly because we think that we’ll be on the long end of the stick someday, but we need to wake up and realize that all of us peasants are in this thing together. You ever notice that the only people who complain about class warfare are the rich and those that think they will be? The truth is that the war has been going on for decades, and quite frankly the working and middle classes have been getting their assess kicked for far too long. If you don’t believe me try finding a paycheck from a few years ago, the longer back the better, and compare it to what you are making now. Then think about the cost of the food you buy and the clothes that you wear and think about what doesn’t add up here.

Finally, we need to persevere, we need to stick to the plan, lest we become the equivalent of Oprah, bouncing back and forth, up and down constantly. We need to become more austere and this needs to be a permanent thing, a way of life that we establish for ourselves and a set of values that we leave behind for future generations to follow. We can’t go back to driving big gas guzzlers just because the price of gas has come down, and we can’t go back to our old ways of consumption and inequality during the next economic boom period. To keep the weight off and maintain your fitness you need to exercise nearly every day and eat healthy, if you stop strapping on the running shoes and start frequenting the drive through windows you’ll end up right back where you started, usually worse. We likewise need to maintain a sense of sacrifice and discipline in order to keep the gains that we will get from changing our habits as a society. We also need to figure out a way to make a corn tortilla that doesn’t collapse on you while eating your fish taco, but I suppose we can deal with that one later, and besides the spillage made those dang beans a little less bland.