Emptying the Political Notebook

Some random thoughts on the political scene that have been rattling around in my bullpen and are in need of being put down on paper, so to speak.

Now that the Republican nomination is just about wrapped up by John McCain, the coming conventional wisdom no doubt will be that the Democrats need to do the same so that they can start focusing on the general election. I'm not sure this is the case however. The longer that Obama and Clinton maintain their contest, the more that they will dominate press coverage, giving attention to their issues. When the media gives attention to issues this tends to legitimize these issues more in the public mindset. Another advantage of a protracted battle is that it forces the Republicans and McCain to game plan for both candidates, similar to a football coach waiting to see who his opponent will be in the playoffs. It's much easier to plot and scheme, I mean to plan against one foe than two, think of how much extra video equipment Bill Bellichik has to employ when he's not sure of his next enemy.

Speaking of game plans, there can be no doubt that the GOP plan will focus on what I call the trifecta of fear. Fear of terrorism, fear of higher taxes, and fear of Mexicans. The first is aimed at the social conservatives who still make up the base of the party, and basically goes something like this: A vote for the Democrats means another 9/11 attack because once we surrender in Iraq it will embolden "the terrorists" and make us all vulnerable. The second appeals to the long forgotten fiscal conservative wing of the party, the one that has been sold down the river by President Bush and his runaway spending. If you vote for the Democrats, taxes will go through the roof, and the deficit, which is now a mere $400 billion a year will really take off. The third appeals to national security and racial insecurity. A vote for the other guys will allow "the terrorists" to infiltrate from the south and makes us all more vulnerable. Even more importantly, it will allow uneducated, Spanish speaking brown people to take over our country, use up all of our resources, and turn our country into some sort of melting pot. Don't underestimate the power of fear in winning elections, it worked out pretty well for Bush four years ago, not to mention for Clinton in 1992 to be fair about it.

So who will win in November, McCain, Clinton, or Obama. The logical thinking goes that Clinton will defeat Obama and then that McCain will defeat Clinton in November. Obama has an uphill battle because he has to win by a large enough margin to defeat Hilary without the super delegates, the party haunchos that seem most likely to side with Clinton and the establishment. The other battle he has to win is against the GOP operatives, who now that they can focus on November can start to use their effective tactics to get the candidate that they want to run against in the general election. Obama will be portrayed as a pot-smoking, large afro wearing, Muslim sympathizer who refuses to pledge allegiance to the flag. And what's even worse, he's liberal! Let the swiftboating begin.

A couple other observations and comments to finish draining the tub. While it's hard to say if there is more sexism than racism in our society today, I think it's quite clear that sexism is much more socially acceptable. Which is a main reason the GOP wants Clinton and not Obama. Much easier to attack a woman in polite society than a Black man. Speaking of racism, it seems to me that Latinos are much more racist against Blacks than Whites are. How else to explain the fact that Obama is doing well among whites, he won in Iowa for crying out loud, but can't win in states with heavy Latino populations like Arizona and California. Is the term pay-go really that much of an improvement from simply saying pay as you go? It's only two extra syllables, takes less than a second extra to say, and doesn't sound like something you'd order off a menu at a Chinese takeout with a side of lo mein. Yet we could use a shortened term for the federally administered tribal areas, the spots in Pakistan where Al-Qaeda seems to be roaming free. How about using the term that we have used here for over a century, reservations.

Time to start filling up the notebook for the next round of ramblings and rants. In the meantime I'll be losing sleep worrying about how my hard earned tax dollars are going to Islamo-fascists who are secretly plotting to get off the rez and enter the U.S. through Tijuana and Nogales. Pleasant dreams!