Big Mo'

Momentum is one of those concepts that is easy to recognize yet hard to define. It is more easily explained by comparison to rolling downhill, or having the wind at your sails. With momentum on our side, everything becomes easier, accomplishments become larger, and they create more momentum, which just keeps the cycle going. Athletes talk about being in a zone, a baseball hitting streak, or a 50 point night are manifestations of momentum. Teams get momentum and go on epic winning streaks where all the breaks seem to go their way. Momentum is crucial in the economy, in wars, in social movements and belief systems. It is vital in our personal lives, as evidenced by how often we read, or excersise, keep in touch, or write in our blogs. Momentum is a major factor in politics and political movements, with it kings are made, without it ideas and innovators fall by the wayside.

Right now the political momentum has certainly shifted in the all-important Democratic primary race. In gambling, specifically in craps, there is the notion of a choppy table. This is a table that has no discernible momentum one way or another. This is the state of the primary race as we head into the final stretch of contests, neither candidate appears to have much going for them. The campaign seems to have hit a lull, which is probably to be expected considering how long it has been going on and the relative similarities of the candidates major policy stances. Obama has lost the advantage he once maintained over Clinton, both in the polls as well as in the public perception. He is no longer the golden boy, his image now tarnished by seemingly peripheral events and characters. But that is not to say that Hilary has taken the edge, she has gotten back in the game to be sure, but she is still facing long odds and lacks the ability to motivate and inspire that has carried Obama to his front running status.

Conventional wisdom, which as much as I hate to admit is often right, holds that Clinton wins Indiana on the strength of the white working class, who now seem to have turned on Obama, and that Obama will win North Carolina with the help of an almost unanimous share of the black vote. If this indeed does happen, the table continues to be choppy and nothing gets settled. While there are open questions as to how this process affects the Democrats chances in the fall against McCain, including whether the losing side will leave the fold or close ranks for the common good, it would be to the advantage of the blue party if they had a candidate with a head of steam behind him, or her. Despite the polls showing a dead heat, I believe this is still the Democrats' election to win, or lose, and that McCain will either go down as the modern day Goldwater, or become an accidental president, but the latter only occurs if the other side basically blows it.

So how does the party of Wilson, FDR, and JFK assure that momentum is squarely on their side come the fall campaign? I believe that the focus must be put back onto the issues that concern voters, issues which the Democratic party has a decided advantage on with solid majorities. To paraphrase the famous line from '92, it's the issues, stupid. The Big Five are the economy, energy, environment, Iraq, and health care. It is time for Obama to move from the general to the specific. He has sold a good number of people, myself included, on his leadership, vision, and personal qualities, as well as on general ideas of doing things in a different and more effective way than they have been done. With the primary campaign winding down, the decisive August convention is less than four months away, and the general election campaign will be much shorter than normal. In order to re-capture, build, spread, and maintain momentum, Obama needs to articulate his policies and plans for the nation, and he needs to take a page from the successful Republican playbook and stay on message, no matter the distractions and temptations to get caught up in the mudslinging and endless cycle of charge and counter-charge. Now is the time to come out with a five point plan, something straightforward and simple enough to capture people's attention and to fit into soundbites, bumper stickers, and background wallpaper, but detailed enough to quell the criticisms of those who see Obama as more style than substance. The specifics of that message will be the topic of my next post.