A Year to Remember

While there are no guarantees, in life or in politics, and certainly events can occur that alter conventional wisdom, this election seems almost like a foregone conclusion at this point. No, I'm not talking about the Democratic primary, that has been a done deal for quite some time now, West Virginia and Kentucky notwithstanding. I'm speaking of the general election, the one which will be holding our attention throughout the summer and well into the fall. Any reading of the voting public has to show that people are fed up with where we are as a nation, as evidenced by the historically low approval ratings for the president, and by the overwhelming percentage of Americans who believe that as a nation we are going decidedly in the wrong direction. You don't have to be a policy wonk or a cable news junkie to realize that we have lost our bearings, both in our own eyes and in those of the rest of the world.



There have been other years where change was at hand, in fact it seems to be a hallmark of our presidential politics, at least for the last century or so. One party will take the wheel for eight, sometimes even twelve years, but then the tide will change and voters will throw the bums out, only to reverse course in another cycle or two. This last occured only less than a decade ago, when voters, tired of the scandals and sleaze that came to mark the Clinton administration voted, by the narrowest of electoral margins for the compassionate conservative, George W. Bush. Just eight years prior, voters had grown tired of twelve years of Reagan-Bush and put, with a mere plurality, the aforementioned Bill Clinton into office. Likewise, Jimmy Carter's election in 1976 brought an end to the Nixon Watergate era, just as Nixon's 1968 election had been a resonse to nearly a decade of liberal policies and social programs that were the bellweather of the Kennedy-Johnson era. Many believe that this is another such year, another time for a changing of the guard, and therefore allow for the possibility that if McCain can simply distance himself far enough from the current regime, and espouse his belief in global warming that somehow he can overcome the circumstances that we find ourselves in and allow the Republicans to sneak in another four more years in charge. Maybe if Obama has more skeletons spilling out of his closet, makes a few more poorly chosen comments, and if the supposedly racist voting populace realizes that a Black man is going to be president, they'll have second thoughts and give McCain a chance. Perhaps, but it's doubtful.



For starters, McCain, while displaying a good sense of humor and an everyday man quality, is nonetheless a poor candidate, possibly the weakest the Republicans have put up since Goldwater in 1964. Secondly, White Americans just aren't as hung up on race as many would like to think. I can't prove this, there are no polls asking people to check yes or no on the question, are you a racist, but it is a sense that I get. To be sure, there are, and probably always will be a part of the population that is bigoted, and the society at large continues to demonstrate racist tendencies, often unwittingly, but most individuals simply aren't as hung up on race as in past generations, especially those of us under the age of 50 that grew up in the post-civil rights era. And for those of the so-called millenial generation, race is even less of a factor. So if McCain is weak, and Obama's being of mixed race isn't a major factor, what chance is there that this will be a competitive election? The answer is, not much.



This year has more of the feel of a revolutionary sea-change in our politics and way of thinking about the role of government. In a sense, it's a broader and more drawn out version of the 8-12 year back and forth that brings us normal change elections, which if this were such a year it is likely that Hillary Clinton would be getting ready to measure, or re-measure the White House drapes. In 1932, at the height of the Great Depression, and after a period of Republican laissez-faire economic and social policy, Americans put a one term governor from New York in office, then proceeded to do it again, and again, and for good measure one more time. The marching orders for FDR: get government to work for the common man. Then in 1980, things went the other way, and the Reagan Revolution began, this time as a movement to get government off of our backs. I propose that 2008 is such a revolutionary year, and that the pendulum has swung back in the direction of getting government to work for us again. Not in the literal sense of another New Deal, times have certainly changed and we have less appetite for government interference and certainly for large public programs and the high taxes necessary to pay for them. But we have also discovered that letting everyone fend for themselves isn't such a grand idea either.



Obama offers a hope for a new direction in our politics and in our beliefs in what government should, and can accomplish. As always, the devil is in the details, and the actual philosophy and policies will evolve over time and will be shaped, as always, by events that occur. But there is something palpable in what Obama offers, the hope that we can start to focus more on common goals and values, less on divisions and superficial differences. The hope that government can actually once again be a positive force in our society and in our individual lives, but in a way that is not overly intrusive. It is this hope that will cause many Republicans to cross over party lines and vote for a Democrat, just as many did in 1932 and as many Democrats did in 1980. It is this hope that will motivate most independents to give a one term Senator a shot the same way a relatively inexperienced FDR was given a crack at things decades ago. It is this hope that will convince the numerous supporters of Hillary Clinton to snap out of it and support a candidate that has very similar policy stances as their current candidate of choice. Ultimately, it is hope in the possibility of a better future, and the confidence that we can pull it off that makes Americans the great people, and America the great nation that it is. This is what Obama offers, and in this once in a generation election season, it is what will put him into the White House. Whether he will have the abilities, the support, and the circumstances to validate this hope remains to be seen of course, and although it can be nothing more than an opinion, my hunch is that this is a special individual, who has come along at a time when he is needed the most, which is something that has precedent in our history to be certain.