Predictions and Predelictions

It is time for that most dangerous of activities, making predictions and then actually publishing them online, because then you can’t go back and armchair quarterback quite so easily. Hindsight is 20-20 as they say, but forecasting is, as my father-in-law used to say, mostly guessing. So here goes my somewhat educated guesses as to what the future may hold in store.

The first two years of the Obama presidency, one that I think has the potential for greatness, will be a tough and bumpy ride. There are so many thorny issues to deal with, and I sense that the expectations are that he can wave his magic wand and make it all better, the way mom used to do when you weren’t feeling well. And since skipping school and staying home to watch TV all day isn’t a viable option here, our next president, along with his constituency, is going to have to get out the heavy duty work gloves and get after it.

The economy is in a serious recession, and the potential is for a severe and lasting downturn. Of course no one has a crystal ball when it comes to such things, but my prediction is for less than another great depression but more than just a temporary downturn. The markets produce much of our wealth, now that we don’t really make stuff anymore, and since many of the services we provide currently can be provided half a world away just as well and for much less cost. We need a new economic model as it pertains to production, because like the Springsteen song says, those jobs are goin’ son, and they ain’t comin’ back.

As unemployment continues to rise, as it generally does in a downward economic spiral, consumers don’t have easy credit to turn to, which will only accelerate the spiral. The good news for consumers, at least those who hold onto their jobs, is that prices will come down as demand lessens, which is exactly what we have seen with gas prices as the price of oil on the world market has dropped from near $150 per barrel to around $50 per barrel of the good stuff, the light sweet crude that we refine and put in our tanks. Today I saw a one to the left of the decimal on the big board out in front of the filling station, which is a sight for sore eyes indeed. I can once again fill up my tank without having to get a co-signer.

Of course, the downside of this development is what my wife worries about, that Americans with short-term vision and shorter memories will go back to the ways that got us into the mess in the first place. I argue with her that people are smarter than that, but just as I made the observation that I haven’t seen many SUV’s with the new vehicle tags, and that the lack of available credit and the recession will be mitigating factors, I then saw an SUV with new plates on the freeway. SUV’s are not evil per se, but they are certainly indicative of a society that produces way too little and consumes way to much, and we are living in a way that is not sustainable, for our economy, our national security, and most of all our planet. I certainly hope that we don’t revert back to old consumption patterns, and the jury will remain out on that one for awhile.

There are other pressing issues that Obama will have to deal with, of course once he solves the dilemmas of where to send his kids to school, what church to attend, and what doggie to get for the kiddos. We are in two wars in Asia that need to be brought to an end sooner rather than later, and we now have a belligerent Russia to deal with, not to mention the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the question of how best to deal with Iran. All of these foreign policy issues will require a deft touch, and may not yield tangible results in the short run.

Ditto for our vital domestic issues, namely our energy and environmental policies, which are also crucial foreign affairs concerns. Health care and education reform must take place, and all of these issues have one thing in common. They are complex and require long-term solutions, and we live in a short-term society with a political system that is in constant campaign mode. The fact that we have designed our congressional districts to be highly partisan works completely against the type of bipartisan solutions that are so frequently discussed during campaigns but so infrequently executed during the periods of governance, which are getting shorter as the campaign cycles grow longer, kind of like how fall seems to be a two week break now between the hot summer and cold winter. But hey, global warming is just a theory right?

The soon to be opposition party must decide between two camps, the intellectual camp on the one side, as represented by such respectable conservatives as Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindall, and Tim Pawlenti, versus the socio-religious side, represented by Sarah Palin and her followers. My sense is that the intellectual side, let’s call them the intel-cons, will win the day over the hawkish neo-cons and the know-nothings represented by Palin and Pals. But on this one I must admit the crystal ball is quite foggy, and I’m predicting more with hope than anything else.

Another area where my sense is more of a predilection than a prediction is when it comes to the young people, black folks, and other first time voters that joined the party this campaign. Will they continue to be engaged in the process and have their voices heard and ideas contributed, or will they bury their head back in the sand in hopes that Aladdin will just pull out the magic lamp and make it all better? Again, my hope is for the former scenario, but I certainly can see the latter taking place.

How will the 111th Congress govern? Will they usher in a new era of sensible and efficient government reforms and institute policies that are designed to improve our society, or will they lose focus and do what the majority party often does, which is to act more to protect their privileged status rather than to actually govern. If there is a mandate from the voters, it is to get things done in a way that helps the most people possible while doing as little damage as is feasible. On many issues that will require patience, sacrifice, and engagement on the part of both the Congress and their constituency. Whether we can all pull it out remains to be seen. My prediction here is that a mostly unsuccessful 111th will give way to a more moderate and effective 112th Congress in a couple of years.

I also feel that Mr. Obama will struggle in the next two years, as he tries to govern wisely while trying not to disappoint the millions that have put lofty expectations upon him. The economic, political, military, and social climate is not an easy one to navigate, and he is also saddled with a Congress that while solidly Democratic, is historically independent and more concerned with their own issues and re-election than with governing. The response to the Big 3 bailout will be a telling sign. Watch for this scenario: The Congress will talk tough, ask for plans, demand that the execs fly coach for the next big meeting, but ultimately will cave and give away what’s left of the farm. If they do, I believe it is a sign that the business is usual sign is shining brightly on Capitol Hill, and all the usual customers will be lining up at the trough, the losers of course will be the common folks like you and me, whose concerns will get bumped to the back of the line.

My final prediction then is this: We are in for a rough time over the next couple years. Things will get worse before they get better. We will see a fundamental shift in our economic model, in what we produce, how we consume, and the way in which it is all distributed. We will no longer be the sole superpower in the world, economically, militarily, or politically. But like the song says, we will survive, we do know how to stay alive. We will emerge from these next few years leaner, and hopefully stronger, fitter, and more just as a nation, a society, and as a member of the world community. The America of the 21st century will be different than the America of the late 20th, but that is not something to fear or lose sleep over. We will continue to be a major player and a powerful force in the world. We will get our house in order and serve as an example for others in the world and for future generations. How do I know this? Of course I don’t know it, but it is just the sense I get, the hope that I have, and as always it will be interesting to say the least to see how things actually develop. If I’m more right than wrong, I’ll refer people back to this posting. If not, there’s always the delete button. Let’s hope that won’t be necessary.