The Hot Stove League

In baseball it's called the hot stove league, the off season manuveurs that are made in the dead of winter, presumably around a hot stove, hence the name, that often have a major impact the following summer and fall. I'm not sure that the name is apt when used to describe basketball's off season, there sure as heck aren't any hot stoves running where I live these days, but until someone comes up with a better name, hot stove it is. Today's topic is the NBA moving and shaking in advance of the amateur draft that is likely to have an impact on next year's playoffs.

Of course I say playoffs because the regular season in the NBA is mostly a formality, an 82 game, 6 month prologue that fills the space in between football weekends and the college hoops tournament during the late fall and winter. The heart and soul of pro ball is the 2 month playoff tournament that runs for most of the spring and is easily the best two months of the sports calendar outside of the NFL and college football season.

The moves made in the summer will have an impact on what happens next spring, and of course it's anybody's guess how those moves will play out, so here's my guess. The big splash move is Shaq O'Neal going from Phoenix to Cleveland to team up with King Lebron in an attempt to get the Cavs their first title and to convince their franchise player to re-up with his home state team after next season. If it works it's a great move, if it doesn't it probably doesn't cost them much, as Cleveland didn't have to give up much to get the aging big man. My guess is that the impact will be minimal, but the hype will be enormous, as enormous as the big fella's supersized ego.

Shaq in his prime was the most dominant center to ever play the game, at least in the modern era. Shaq in his prime was nearly unstoppable, except for when he was on the free throw line, and led the Lakers to three consecutive titles at the start of the decade. Kareem was the greatest all-around center, and is still the NBA's all-time leading scorer, but for sheer physical dominance in the paint, nobody can match the Diesel.

But Shaq will turn 38 next season, and like many veteran players, he can still exhibit his former greatness on a given night, even for a few games at a time, but not over the course of a season, or more importantly in a 2 month playoff run at the end of that season. So while getting Shaq will grab the headlines and make Clevelanders excited about having another superstar in a town that hasn't had too many over the years, it is doubtful that he will be the presence that puts them over the hump. The two best teams in the East remain the reigning conference champs Orlando, who are younger and more balanced, and Boston, who if Kevin Garnett comes back healthy and they resist the silly notion of trading their impressive young point guard Rajon Rondo, will once again be the team to beat on the right side of the country.

The move of the hot stove league so far, and one that will get much less run than the big Shaq move, is the Spurs picking up Richard Jefferson, a younger veteran, and all around athlete who averages nearly 20 points and 8 boards a game. Add this to Tim Duncan, the premier big man in the game and best all-around center or power forward of his generation, Tony Parker and Manu Ginoboli, and you have a team that will be awful tough to beat in a 7 game series. The Spurs faded down the stretch after Ginoboli got hurt, but earlier in the season when they were healthy they were neck and neck with the Lakers.

Speaking of the Lakers, the defending champs are simply looking to hang on to what they have, and as is often the case in sports with championship teams, they must fend off the migration of top players who often look to cash in after winning a title. Lamar Odom is the big gun that LA needs to keep in purple and gold, and while many think that he is expendable thanks to the promising young Trevor Arriza, I'll take the sure thing over a prospect any day. The Lakers with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Odom were able to win a title, the 15th in franchise history, but let's not forget that with this crew they were barely able to beat a Houston squad that was without their two best players, and thanks to Ginoboli's injury never had to square off against long time playoff nemesis San Antonio.

Forget about the Nuggets, they are likely to spend more time this summer in the local tattoo parlors than in the gym, and outside of Carmelo Anthony I don't see much there that will replicate itself. But the Spurs are four-time champs under Duncan, and the Rockets under the right circumstances could be a rising contender for the crown. Regardless of what happens in H-town though, the Spurs with Jefferson are the team to beat in the West, and if the Lakers lose Odom they could be in trouble come next spring.

The Draft is approaching, and I won't even try to handicap that, honestly I don't follow college hoops closely enough to have an opinion that is worth much as far as what players will come through in the pros. Add to that the European factor, and the fact that many of these college players only play a year or two, and the draft is a crap shoot.

But based on the off season moves made so far, I would rank the top 5 contenders going into next season in the following order:
5) Cleveland
4) Orlando
3) LA
2) Boston
1) San Antonio

We'll see how it plays out, and the nice thing about blogs is that this post will be there for all to see if it does pan out next spring. And if I'm nowhere near being accurate, I can always delete this sucker and act like I don't ever remember writing it.